THE FACTS
& FIGURES ABOUT HOUSING AND
1. Government
figures for
2.
The projected
increase of 750,000 households is based on a projected increase of 1,177,000
(23% increase) in the population of
3.
Around 80% of
these new households (i.e. 610,000) are projected by 2026 and are built into
the Regional Spatial Strategy for
4.
Between 2006-31
This increase arises due to
the following factors: a natural increase in population (+62,600), immigration
(+80,700) and population movement out of
5.
Between 2006-31
6. The
Government’s projections show that the vast majority of the internal migration
into Rotherham will come from Sheffield in order to “take pressure” off Sheffield,
which is projected to experience a large increase in population due to the
factors outlined at point 4.
7. Council
house waiting lists are not a factor that is included in the Government’s
projections!!!
THE ABOVE PROJECTION MODELS (UP TO 2026) ARE
USED IN THE REGIONAL SPATIAL STRATEGY (RSS) POLICY AND ARE DIRECTLY LEADING TO
AN EXCESSIVE AND UN-NECESSARY HOMES TARGET FOR
The evidence behind these facts is as
follows………………
1. Where Do
-
Rotherham’s house building targets are set at a
regional level as per the
- The RSS allocates housing targets for all Councils across the Y&H region based on the current projection for increased households which for Y&H is 610,000 by 2026 (see link )
http://www.gos.gov.uk/497763/docs/199734/199799/689582/1_Y_H_Published_RSS_May_2008.pdf
2. What
are
- By 2026 the Y&H RSS requires
- According to Rotherham Council’s own study of the Borough’s
actual housing need in its Strategic Housing Market Assessment (2007) the total number of homes
needed in Rotherham by 2026 is 15,049 – this is 8,831 homes less than
the minimum housing figure for
- For
Rotherham, the RSS housing targets mean that the available land capacity to
build these homes is: 26% of homes on Brownfield land, 70% on
- See page 5+6 of the attached link which confirms the above
figures : “A letter from the Head of Planning at
the Local Government of Yorkshire and Humberside to the Director of Planning at
Rotherham Council.”
http://www.lgyh.gov.uk/dnlds/Rotherham,%20Core%20Strategy%20Revised%20Options,%20Aug%2009.pdf
3. Why are the RSS Housing Targets for
- The housing targets in the Y&H Regional
Spatial Strategy are so high because of future population projections used by
the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) when informing
housing targets for Regional Spatial Strategies across
http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/statistics/pdf/1172133.pdf
- Page 1: “Population growth is the main
driver of household growth, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the
increase in households between 2006 and 2031”
- Page 5: “Table 4: Household projections
by region,
|
thousands |
Number of households |
Change 2006 - 2031 |
||||||||
|
2006 |
2016 |
2026 |
2031 |
Per year (‘000) |
Percent |
|||||
|
North East |
1,110 |
1,201 |
1,281 |
1,316 |
8 |
19% |
||||
|
|
2,931 |
3,221 |
3,497 |
3,617 |
27 |
23% |
||||
|
Yorkshire & The |
2,181 |
2,494 |
2,792 |
2,932 |
30 |
34% |
||||
|
|
1,849 |
2,138 |
2,413 |
2,539 |
28 |
37% |
||||
|
|
2,237 |
2,454 |
2,668 |
2,762 |
21 |
23% |
||||
|
East |
2,371 |
2,715 |
3,056 |
3,211 |
34 |
35% |
||||
|
|
3,178 |
3,516 |
3,867 |
4,016 |
34 |
26% |
||||
|
South East |
3,447 |
3,838 |
4,244 |
4,425 |
39 |
28% |
||||
|
South West |
2,211 |
2,529 |
2,854 |
3,001 |
32 |
36% |
||||
|
|
21,515 |
24,107 |
26,674 |
27,818 |
252 |
29% |
||||
- For
- Page 10: “Yorkshire and the Humber
and the
4.
So what are the DCLG’s Projected Population Factors causing
the demand for new Housing across Y&H?
-
The DCLG’s projection of 750,000 new Y&H households
by 2031 (of which 610,000 are by 2026) is based on the following population
projections for Y& H, as given by the DCLG’s response to a Freedom of
Information Request : See the following
Appendix A: (Sheet 2) DCLG Y&H population
levels and
Appendix B: DCLG notes on Y&H population figures.
- The DCLG’s FOI figures shows the following for projected population growth :
|
Factors causing Y& H population
Increase (2006-2031) |
Population Growth |
Percentage of Increase |
|
Net Overseas Immigration |
634,200 |
54% |
|
Natural Change (births less deaths) |
517,200 |
44% |
|
Net Internal Migration (into Y&H) |
25,600 |
2% |
|
Total : Population
Increase |
1,177,000 |
100% |
- The DCLG project an increase in the population of Y&H from 5,142,000 (2006) to 6,319,000 (2031) which represents an increase of 1,177,000 people (a 23% increase over 2006) and this projected increase arises due to the following factors:
- The projected population increase (2006-31) leads to the following causation factors for housing demand (See Appendix D page 2-3 for further details)
|
Yorkshire
& Humberside (2006-31) Factors Causing New Households : |
Number |
|
Population |
585,000 |
|
Age Structure |
83,000 |
|
Marital Status |
20,000 |
|
Household Representative Rates |
128,000 |
|
Non Linear Factor Adjustment |
-65,000 |
|
Total Households:
Y&H |
750,000 |
5.
What are the DCLG’s Projected Population increases for
- At this point it is helpful to again refer
to APPENDIX A: Sheet
2 DCLG FOI response and
firstly note what is happening in the DCLG’s population projections for
|
Factors
causing |
Population Growth |
Percentage of Increase |
|
Net Overseas Immigration |
80,700 |
56% |
|
Natural Change (births less deaths) |
62,600 |
44% |
|
Total : Gross Population Increase |
143,300 |
100% |
|
Less: *Internal Migration (to |
-53,800 |
|
|
Total: Net Population Increase |
89,500 |
|
- The
DCLG’s projections show the following for
- A gross
population increase of 143,300 (i.e. 27% over 2006) in
- An
outflow (i.e. internal migration) of 53,800 people from Sheffield, mainly
to other parts of South Yorkshire (of which
- When
the factors in 1+2 are taken into account together,
The projected population outflow
from Sheffield has significant implications for
- The DCLG project an increase in the
population of
|
Factors causing |
Population Growth |
Percentage of Increase |
|
Net Overseas Immigration |
1,400 |
4% |
|
Natural Change (births less deaths) |
15,200 |
41% |
|
Net *Internal
Migration (into |
20,300 |
55% |
|
Total : Population
Increase |
36,900 |
100% |
6. Evidence for the Relationship between Sheffield &
Rotherham
- The
largest projected factor in Rotherham’s population growth is *Internal
Migration and this is primarily due to the projected outflow of population from
- Sheffield’s population
projections assume an increase in overseas immigration levels which will be
offset by a large projected increase in the internal migration flow to
Rotherham in order to “TAKE PRESSURE
OFF
-
In the housing models/
targets developed during the creation of the RSS, Rotherham’s housing target
was increased in order to “TAKE
PRESSURE OFF
The evidence
for this can be found in the following attached documents:
(i)
Appendix C: The
-
This document records how housing targets in Rotherham have been increased
to “take pressure off
See Appendix 3: Page xii:
DRAFT TABLE HIB RSS
HOUSING PROVISION BY LPA - GROSS
“THE YORKSHIRE & HUMBER
PLAN: BACKGROUND PAPER 2
THE PLAN’S APPROACH TO HOUSING PROVISION AND DISTRIBUTION”
(ii) Appendix D: DCLG
FOI Response – Internal Migration.
- In addition further evidence of the link
between Sheffield and Rotherham’s population projections can be seen in the
DCLG’s response (see attached) to a second FOI request asking about the modelling
assumptions behind Sheffield’s projected outflow of internal migration ( i.e.
the 53,800 figure). The DCLG’s answer is quoted as follows:
“The Office for
National Statistics has provided the following figures which are internal
migration outflows from Sheffield to Barnsley, Doncaster and
|
Internal
migration outflows: |
||
|
Origin |
Destination |
2006-2007 |
|
|
|
800 |
|
|
|
400 |
|
|
|
2000 |
7. How Do Council House Waiting Lists impact on the projections?
The answer according to the DCLG
is as follows:
Appendix D – Page 4:
“Council house waiting
lists are not used by the household projections. The projections model is
intended to give the long term demographic demand”
8.
What is the economic case for all of this?
- One noticeable
figure in the DCLG’s population projections is the significant level of
overseas migration assumed (634,000 by 2031). This population factor has added
significance in that it is the only factor that any Government has any control
over.
-
The Government has
often claimed that economic migration is necessary for the economy; however the
following House of Lords report, the most in depth study to date, of the
economic impact of immigration reported the following conclusions :
The House of Lords Select Committee: The
Economic Impact of Immigration.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200708/ldselect/ldeconaf/82/82.pdf
Page 5:
“Immigration has become highly
significant to the UK economy: immigrants comprise 12% of the total
workforce—and a much higher proportion in London.However, we have found no
evidence for the argument, made by the Government, business and many others,
that net immigration—immigration minus emigration—generates significant
economic benefits for the existing UK population.
Overall GDP, which the Government has
persistently emphasised, is an irrelevant and misleading criterion for
assessing the economic impacts of immigration on the
Many businesses and public services at
present make use of the skills and hard work of immigrants. But this is not an
argument for immigration on a scale which exceeds emigration and thus increases
the population of the country. We do not support the general claims that net
immigration is indispensable to fill labour and skills shortages. Such claims
are analytically weak and provide insufficient reason for promoting net
immigration.”
9. Will the RSS housing targets mean more
affordable housing?
- One of the claims made for the homes target in the RSS is
that it is necessary in order to increase the supply of “affordable” housing.
However, when looking at the Government’s population predictions, the House of
Lords Committee reported the following impact on house prices:
The House of Lords Select Committee: The
Economic Impact of Immigration.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200708/ldselect/ldeconaf/82/82.pdf
See page 48:
170 “Professor
Whitehead and Mr Sampson noted that immigration also impacts
on house prices, both directly through
higher demand for houses by immigrants and indirectly through boosting the
buy-to-let market (Q 352).Goldman Sachs have estimated that a 1% increase in
the number of households raises house prices by 8% in the short run for a given
stock of housing and by 6% once the house-building has responded to higher
prices over the longer term.
171 Professor
Nickell, who advises the Government on affordable housing, said that since 2000
the ratio of average house prices to average annual earnings had risen from
four to seven. If net immigration had been zero, house prices would, according
to Professor Nickell, still have risen to 6.5 times average income (Q 49).
Professor Nickell also forecast that, if the current rate of house building is
sustained for the next 20 years, house prices will rise to 9.3 times average
income if there is zero net migration. But if there is 190,000 net immigration
each year, house prices will rise to 10.5 times average income—13% higher than
they would be with zero migration (p 33).
172 Immigration
is one of many factors contributing to more demand for housing and higher house
prices. We note the forecasts that, if current rates of net immigration
persist, 20 years hence house prices would be over 10% higher than what they
would be if there were zero
net immigration.”
10. What
about the Government’s Claims about Jobs Creation?
- The
Government and Rotherham Council have stated that the housing developments will
create many new jobs and reduce unemployment.
- Frank
Field MP, Co –Chairman of the Cross Party Group Balanced Migration produced the
following press release (see link below), quoting the Governments own figures
in relation to jobs created and unemployment levels in
“New figures
published today show just how few new jobs in
In respect of the
total working population over the age of 16, the picture is slightly different
– because a significant number of
Commenting on the
figures, the co-Chairmen of the Cross-Party Group on Balanced Migration, Frank
Field MP and Nicholas Soames MP, said:
“These figures tell
a simple story: in the private sector it has been British jobs for foreign
workers. The private sector should now match the public sector in ensuring
local people have the first chance at gaining local jobs”.
A
briefing note on the figures is attached.
http://www.balancedmigration.com/pressreleases/BritishjobsreleaseRev4.pdf
