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THE FACTS & FIGURES ABOUT HOUSING AND GREENBELT IN ROTHERHAM.

 

1. Government figures for Yorkshire and Humberside project a total of 750,000 new households over a 25 year period (2006-31)

 

2.     The projected increase of 750,000 households is based on a projected increase of 1,177,000 (23% increase) in the population of Yorkshire and Humberside - from 5.142 million (2006) to 6.319 million (2031).    

 

3.     Around 80% of these new households (i.e. 610,000) are projected by 2026 and are built into the Regional Spatial Strategy for Yorkshire and Humberside.

 

4.     Between 2006-31 Sheffield’s population is projecting a 17% net increase of 89,500

This increase arises due to the following factors: a natural increase in population (+62,600), immigration (+80,700) and population movement out of Sheffield (-53,800).

 

5.     Between 2006-31 Rotherham’s population is projecting a 14.6% net increase of 36,900 due to the following main factors: a natural increase in population (+15,200) and internal migration (+20,300)

 

6.     The Government’s projections show that the vast majority of the internal migration into Rotherham will come from Sheffield in order to “take pressure” off Sheffield, which is projected to experience a large increase in population due to the factors outlined at point 4.

 

7.     Council house waiting lists are not a factor that is included in the Government’s projections!!!

 

THE ABOVE PROJECTION MODELS (UP TO 2026) ARE USED IN THE REGIONAL SPATIAL STRATEGY (RSS) POLICY AND ARE DIRECTLY LEADING TO AN EXCESSIVE AND UN-NECESSARY HOMES TARGET FOR ROTHERHAM. IT IS THESE RSS TARGETS THAT ARE LEADING TO A LOSS OF LARGE SWATHES OF ROTHERHAM’S GREENBELT.

 

 

 

The evidence behind these facts is as follows………………

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.    Where Do Rotherham’s Housing Targets Come From?  

 

-          Rotherham’s house building targets are set at a regional level as per the Yorkshire & Humberside Regional Spatial Strategy to 2026 (RSS)

 

-          The RSS allocates housing targets for all Councils across the Y&H region based on the current projection for increased households which for Y&H is 610,000 by 2026 (see link )

 

http://www.gos.gov.uk/497763/docs/199734/199799/689582/1_Y_H_Published_RSS_May_2008.pdf

 

 

2.    What are Rotherham’s Housing Targets?

 

-     By 2026 the Y&H RSS requires Rotherham to build a minimum of 23,880 new homes with potential for the total to rise up to nearly 34,000 homes. These housing targets are binding and cannot be changed by Rotherham Council.

 

-     According to Rotherham Council’s own study of the Borough’s actual housing need in its Strategic Housing Market Assessment (2007) the total number of homes needed in Rotherham by 2026 is 15,049 – this is 8,831 homes less than the minimum housing figure for Rotherham in the Regional Spatial Strategy.

 

-     For Rotherham, the RSS housing targets mean that the available land capacity to build these homes is: 26% of homes on Brownfield land, 70% on Greenfield land and 4% on a mix of both.

 

-     See page 5+6  of the attached link which confirms the above figures : “A letter from the Head of Planning at the Local Government of Yorkshire and Humberside to the Director of Planning at Rotherham Council.”

 

http://www.lgyh.gov.uk/dnlds/Rotherham,%20Core%20Strategy%20Revised%20Options,%20Aug%2009.pdf


 

3. Why are the RSS Housing Targets for Rotherham so high?

 

-     The housing targets in the Y&H Regional Spatial Strategy are so high because of future population projections used by the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) when informing housing targets for Regional Spatial Strategies across England.  As the DCLG says in its own document: Household Projections to 2031, England (see link)

 

http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/statistics/pdf/1172133.pdf

 

-     Page 1: “Population growth is the main driver of household growth, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the increase in households between 2006 and 2031”

 

-     Page 5: “Table 4: Household projections by region, England

        

thousands

Number of households

Change

2006 - 2031

2006

2016

2026

2031

Per year

(‘000)

Percent

North East

1,110

1,201

1,281

1,316

8

19%

North West

2,931

3,221

3,497

3,617

27

23%

Yorkshire & The Humber

2,181

2,494

2,792

2,932

30

34%

East Midlands

1,849

2,138

2,413

2,539

28

37%

West Midlands

2,237

2,454

2,668

2,762

21

23%

East

2,371

2,715

3,056

3,211

34

35%

London

3,178

3,516

3,867

4,016

34

26%

South East

3,447

3,838

4,244

4,425

39

28%

South West

2,211

2,529

2,854

3,001

32

36%

England

21,515

24,107

26,674

27,818

252

29%

 

-     For Yorkshire and Humberside the projected increase in households by 2031 is 750,000 (* of which 610,000 are projected to be realised by 2026 – i.e. the figure used in the RSS)

 

-     Page 10: “Yorkshire and the Humber and the East Midlands show the larger increases in household growth which reflects the higher level of population growth in these regions in the 2006-based population projections compared to the 2004-based (revised) population projections”


4.          So what are the DCLG’s Projected Population Factors causing the demand for new Housing across Y&H?

 

-          The DCLG’s projection of 750,000 new Y&H households by 2031 (of which 610,000 are by 2026) is based on the following population projections for Y& H, as given by the DCLG’s response to a Freedom of Information Request : See the following

 

 Appendix A: (Sheet 2) DCLG Y&H population levels and

 Appendix B: DCLG notes on Y&H population figures.

 

-          The DCLG’s FOI figures shows the following for projected population growth :

 

           

Factors causing Y& H population Increase (2006-2031)

Population

Growth

Percentage

of Increase

Net Overseas Immigration

634,200

54%

Natural Change (births less deaths)

517,200

44%

Net Internal Migration (into Y&H)

25,600

  2%

Total : Population Increase

1,177,000

100%

 

-        The DCLG project an increase in the population of Y&H from 5,142,000 (2006) to 6,319,000 (2031) which represents an increase of 1,177,000 people (a 23% increase over 2006) and this projected increase arises due to the following factors:

 

-        The projected population increase (2006-31) leads to the following causation factors for housing demand (See Appendix D page 2-3 for further details)

 

Yorkshire & Humberside (2006-31)

 

Factors Causing New Households :

 

 

 

Number

Population

585,000

Age Structure

83,000

Marital Status

20,000

Household Representative Rates

128,000

Non Linear Factor Adjustment

-65,000

Total Households: Y&H

 

750,000

 

 


 

5.          What are the DCLG’s Projected Population increases for Rotherham?

 

-     At this point it is helpful to again refer to APPENDIX A: Sheet 2  DCLG FOI response and firstly note what is happening in the DCLG’s population projections for Sheffield up to 2031:

 

Factors causing Sheffield population Increase (2006-2031)

Population

Growth

Percentage

of Increase

Net Overseas Immigration

 80,700

 56%

Natural Change (births less deaths)

 62,600

 44%

Total : Gross Population Increase

143,300

100%

Less: *Internal Migration (to S Yorks)

-53,800

 

Total: Net Population Increase

89,500

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     

 

-     The DCLG’s projections show the following for Sheffield:

 

  1. A gross population increase of 143,300 (i.e. 27% over 2006) in Sheffield’s population of which 56% of the growth is due to immigration and 44% due to natural change.

 

  1. An outflow (i.e. internal migration) of 53,800 people from Sheffield, mainly to other parts of South Yorkshire (of which Rotherham receives the highest number).

 

  1. When the factors in 1+2 are taken into account together, Sheffield’s net population increase becomes 89,500 (i.e. a 17% increase     )

 

The projected population outflow from Sheffield has significant implications for Rotherham’s housing needs and therefore greenbelt

 

-     The DCLG project an increase in the population of Rotherham from 253,300 (2006) to 290,200 (2031) which represents an increase of 36,900 people (a 14.6% increase over 2006) and this projected increase is due to the following factors

 

Factors causing Rotherham population Increase (2006-2031)

Population

Growth

Percentage

of Increase

Net Overseas Immigration

  1,400

  4%

Natural Change (births less deaths)

15,200

 41%

Net *Internal Migration (into Rotherham)

20,300

 55%

Total : Population Increase

36,900

100%

 

 

 


 

6.      Evidence for the Relationship between Sheffield & Rotherham

           

-     The largest projected factor in Rotherham’s population growth is *Internal Migration and this is primarily due to the projected outflow of population from Sheffield.

 

-     Sheffield’s population projections assume an increase in overseas immigration levels which will be offset by a large projected increase in the internal migration flow to Rotherham in order to “TAKE PRESSURE OFF SHEFFIELD

 

-          In the housing models/ targets developed during the creation of the RSS, Rotherham’s housing target was increased in order to “TAKE PRESSURE OFF SHEFFIELD”.

 

The evidence for this can be found in the following attached documents:

 

(i)                Appendix C: The Yorkshire and Humberside Plan.

 

-          This document records  how housing targets in Rotherham have been increased to “take pressure off Sheffield”:

 

See Appendix 3: Page xii: South Yorkshire

DRAFT TABLE HIB RSS HOUSING PROVISION BY LPA - GROSS

 

“THE YORKSHIRE & HUMBER PLAN: BACKGROUND PAPER 2

THE PLAN’S APPROACH TO HOUSING PROVISION AND DISTRIBUTION”

 

(ii)     Appendix D: DCLG FOI Response – Internal Migration.

 

-     In addition further evidence of the link between Sheffield and Rotherham’s population projections can be seen in the DCLG’s response (see attached) to a second FOI request asking about the modelling assumptions behind Sheffield’s projected outflow of internal migration ( i.e. the 53,800 figure). The DCLG’s answer is quoted as follows:

 

The Office for National Statistics has provided the following figures which are internal migration outflows from Sheffield to Barnsley, Doncaster and Rotherham. This is the first year’s internal migration from the 2006 based projections and should give you a very good indication of future years as these future years are built on the previous years values.

 

 

Internal migration outflows:

 

Origin

Destination

2006-2007

Sheffield

Barnsley

800

Sheffield

Doncaster

400

Sheffield

Rotherham

2000

 


7.      How Do Council House Waiting Lists impact on the projections?

 

The answer according to the DCLG is as follows:

 

Appendix D – Page 4:

 

Council house waiting lists are not used by the household projections. The projections model is intended to give the long term demographic demand”

 

 

8.                What is the economic case for all of this?

 

-     One noticeable figure in the DCLG’s population projections is the significant level of overseas migration assumed (634,000 by 2031). This population factor has added significance in that it is the only factor that any Government has any control over.

 

-    The Government has often claimed that economic migration is necessary for the economy; however the following House of Lords report, the most in depth study to date, of the economic impact of immigration reported the following conclusions :

 

The House of Lords Select Committee: The Economic Impact of Immigration.

 

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200708/ldselect/ldeconaf/82/82.pdf

 

Page 5:

 

“Immigration has become highly significant to the UK economy: immigrants comprise 12% of the total workforce—and a much higher proportion in London.However, we have found no evidence for the argument, made by the Government, business and many others, that net immigration—immigration minus emigration—generates significant economic benefits for the existing UK population.

 

Overall GDP, which the Government has persistently emphasised, is an irrelevant and misleading criterion for assessing the economic impacts of immigration on the UK. The total size of an economy is not an index of prosperity. The focus of analysis should rather be on the effects of immigration on income per head of the resident population. Both theory and the available empirical evidence indicate that these effects are small, especially in the long run when the economy fully adjusts to the increased supply of labour. In the long run, the main economic effect of immigration is to enlarge the economy, with relatively small costs and benefits for the incomes of the resident population”

 

Many businesses and public services at present make use of the skills and hard work of immigrants. But this is not an argument for immigration on a scale which exceeds emigration and thus increases the population of the country. We do not support the general claims that net immigration is indispensable to fill labour and skills shortages. Such claims are analytically weak and provide insufficient reason for promoting net immigration.”


9.      Will the RSS housing targets mean more affordable housing?

 

-        One of the claims made for the homes target in the RSS is that it is necessary in order to increase the supply of “affordable” housing. However, when looking at the Government’s population predictions, the House of Lords Committee reported the following impact on house prices:

 

The House of Lords Select Committee: The Economic Impact of Immigration.

 

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200708/ldselect/ldeconaf/82/82.pdf

 

See page 48:

 

170   “Professor Whitehead and Mr Sampson noted that immigration also impacts

on house prices, both directly through higher demand for houses by immigrants and indirectly through boosting the buy-to-let market (Q 352).Goldman Sachs have estimated that a 1% increase in the number of households raises house prices by 8% in the short run for a given stock of housing and by 6% once the house-building has responded to higher prices over the longer term.

 

171   Professor Nickell, who advises the Government on affordable housing, said that since 2000 the ratio of average house prices to average annual earnings had risen from four to seven. If net immigration had been zero, house prices would, according to Professor Nickell, still have risen to 6.5 times average income (Q 49). Professor Nickell also forecast that, if the current rate of house building is sustained for the next 20 years, house prices will rise to 9.3 times average income if there is zero net migration. But if there is 190,000 net immigration each year, house prices will rise to 10.5 times average income—13% higher than they would be with zero migration (p 33).

 

172   Immigration is one of many factors contributing to more demand for housing and higher house prices. We note the forecasts that, if current rates of net immigration persist, 20 years hence house prices would be over 10% higher than what they would be if there were zero

net immigration.”

 

 


10. What about the Government’s Claims about Jobs Creation?

 

-        The Government and Rotherham Council have stated that the housing developments will create many new jobs and reduce unemployment.

 

-        Frank Field MP, Co –Chairman of the Cross Party Group Balanced Migration produced the following press release (see link below), quoting the Governments own figures in relation to jobs created and unemployment levels in Britain since 1997 (see web link below):  

 

“New figures published today show just how few new jobs in Britain have gone to British born workers. Looking at people of working age, all jobs created in the private sector under the Labour Government have been filled by foreign born workers. The number of UK born workers in the private sector actually fell by nearly 90,000 between the first quarter of 1997 and the first quarter of 2009. A third of new public sector jobs also went to non-UK born workers.

 

In respect of the total working population over the age of 16, the picture is slightly different – because a significant number of UK born people have stayed on after the official retirement age. These figures show that 1.1 million new jobs have been created in the public sector of which 28% went to non-UK born workers. In the private sector there were 1.8 million new jobs – but 85% went to non-UK born workers.

 

Commenting on the figures, the co-Chairmen of the Cross-Party Group on Balanced Migration, Frank Field MP and Nicholas Soames MP, said:

 

“These figures tell a simple story: in the private sector it has been British jobs for foreign workers. The private sector should now match the public sector in ensuring local people have the first chance at gaining local jobs”.

 

A briefing note on the figures is attached.

 

http://www.balancedmigration.com/pressreleases/BritishjobsreleaseRev4.pdf

 

 

 

APPENDIX A

 

 

APPENDIX B

 

APPENDIX C

 

APPENDIX D